byercrhomeDesktopBCB_0-SA_MAINBCB_2020-NOV-20REPOST-USKickstartKickstart2020-11-20T22_44_20Z2020-11-20T23_19_23Z.pptx Goldman Sachs Consensus Portfolio Strategy Bottom-Up 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E EPS $136 $175 $138 $169 Growth (17)% 29 % (16)% 23 % NTM 2021E NTM 2021E P/E 21.5x 21.3x 23.1x 22.0x Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html . US Weekly Kickstart Source: I/B/E/S, FirstCall, Goldman Sachs Investment Research S&P 500 earnings and valuation Assessing the risks to our 2021 S&P 500 forecast and prospective risk-adjusted returns for S&P 500 stocks Table of Contents The S&P 500 has risen by 15% in 2020 but with extreme volatility. Our High Sharpe Ratio basket identifies stocks with the highest prospective risk-adjusted returns. GSTHSHRP has underperformed the S&P 500 by 4 pp YTD (+13% vs. +17%). Despite this, the basket has a long-term track record of outperformance. We rebalance the basket in this report. Across the S&P 500, equity analysts forecast just 5% upside for the typical stock, compared with our top-down forecast for a 16% return by year-end 2021 (to 4300). We consider three risks to our forecast: vaccine distribution, a rise in inflation and interest rates, and policy uncertainty stemming from the Georgia Senate run-offs and antitrust litigation. Need access to view our baskets on GS Marquee? Email us . 22 December 2020 | 5:46PM EST Conversations we are having with clients 2 Markets and money flow 5 Market performance 6 Sector performance 7 Style and size 13 Strategy baskets 14 Earnings, sales, and revisions 19 Valuations 20 Factors 22 Fund Flows, Fund Performance, and Short Interest 23 Correlation, breadth, and dispersion 24 Economics 25 Goldman Sachs macro forecasts 26 Performance The S&P 500 was up 1.5% this week. Information Technology was the best-performing sector (+3.3%) while Energy was the worst-performing sector (-3.7%). We expect the S&P 500 will end 2021 at 4300 (+15.5%). David J. Kostin (212) 902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider (212) 357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Arjun Menon, CFA (212) 902-9693 | arjun.menon@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond (212) 902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Cole Hunter, CFA (212) 357-9860 | cole.p.hunter@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Cormac Conners (212) 902-0024 | cormac.x.conners@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Lily Calcagnini (212) 357-5913 | lily.calcagnini@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC For the exclusive use of MICHAEL.VAKNIN@PSQCAPITAL.COM 746c584b97d54a599a35327fdd396f9c 

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us-weekly-kickstart-assessing-the-risks-to-our-2021-sp-500-forecast-and-prospective-risk-adjusted-returns-for-sp-500-stockspdf

US Weekly Kickstart_ Assessing the risks to our 2021 S&P 500 forecast and prospective risk-adjusted returns for S&P 500 stocks.pdf

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