jp morgan

THANKSGIVING EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Access our full coronavirus analysis web portal here November 18 , 2020 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE: ● NOT FDIC INSURED ● NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES ● SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED Thanksgiving 1 Eye on the Market The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6 th . See pages 4-6 for a review of all the rules and procedures in play, including an update from Wayne County, MI A year ago, I wrote about the “Armageddonists”: the market-watchers, forecasters and money managers whose apocalyptic comments spread like wildfire in print and online financial news. As we wrote last year, anyone who was underinvested since they listened to the Armageddonists suffered large opportunity losses from 2009 to 2019 given how well equity markets performed. You can read the original piece here . So, did COVID rescue the Armageddonists by finally causing the market collapse they had been anticipating? Not really . Even if we give them credit for including pandemics in their panoply of disaster scenarios, the March selloff did not erase the underperformance linked to their views. Furthermore, the 2020 equity market selloff was so quickly reversed that it would have taken an almost immediate rebalancing into riskier assets to partially recover prior losses. So no, COVID did not rescue the Armageddonists from underperformance purgatory, and now markets are at all-time highs again. 1 There’s a hyperlink you may need if you are celebrating Thanksgiving this year with your relatives, either in person or remotely. See box on page 6. Nouriel Roubini David Rosenberg Jeff Gundlach Marc Faber & Laksham Achuthan Robert Wiedemer David Stockman & Albert Edwards Peter Schiff & Tom DeMark David Levy Carl Icahn, John Hussman & George Soros Simon Johnson & Paul Krugman Bob Janjuah -65% -60% -55% -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: JPMAM, Bloomberg. November 13, 2020. Using weekly S&P 500 and Barclay's Aggregate data. COVID did not rescue the Armageddonists from underperformance purgatory Performance impact of shifting $1 from the S&P 500 to the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index, measured from the week of the Armageddonist comment to November 13, 2020 How was the chart created? We measured the impact on an investor that shifted $1 from equities to gov’t, mortgage-backed and corporate bonds at the time of the Armageddonist comment. See original piece page 4, linked above, for comment archive. 

The Armageddonists Revisited.pdf

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