U.S. ECONOMIC & MARKET REVIEW—SEPTEMBER 2020 Autumn ushers in the seasonal traditions of back to school, election year politics, and investors returning from the beach. This year has been full of superlative-generating events and there is plenty to reflect upon. Markets care little for yesterday, however, only a bit more for today, and are mostly focused on the future. Today, we think the market reflects a pragmatic and mostly reasonable interpretation of current and anticipated conditions. Due to the wide-ranging destruction from COVID and the uneven recovery, it is more important than ever to go beyond a simplistic interpretation of data—whether in assessing economic recovery or evaluating investment opportunities. In aggregate, we believe most key fundamental metrics regarding the economy and markets support a rational read on what we have learned thus far about how the economy functions in a modern era pandemic. Consider the charts below for key indicators at December 2018, December 2019, the COVID-low, and currently . Each is scaled such that 2019 represents the base, or 100%. Official GDP figures are released quarterly, so the most recent data is as of June 30. However, short-cycle alternative data show an economy running at 95% of the prior year. Figures above represent total employed—a useful statistic for gauging how much income is available in the economy. Today, total employed of 141 million is comparable to levels last seen in 2015. Investors often focus on PE ratios using expected earnings. Trailing PE ratios can be useful in that they use actual, rather than estimated data. While PE ratios based on future expected earnings are elevated, there are important factors supporting this condition. First, earnings estimates for 2021 have been rising lately, as the recovery comes into clearer focus. Second, PE ratios should be viewed relative to interest rates. As rates are significantly lower, higher multiples are well supported. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 2018 2019 Worst Current GDP (BILLIONS) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 2018 2019 Worst Current TOTAL EMPLOYED 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 2018 2019 Worst Current PE RATIO (TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 2018 2019 Worst Current PE RATIO (FORWARD) 

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silvercrest-economic-review-september-2020pdf

Silvercrest Economic Review September 2020.pdf

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